What stocks you buying?
Hey monkeys, just interested in hearing what stocks you're currently bullish on long term.. F? CROX? JCP? LNKD (@"WallStreetOasis.com")?
I'm currently long American Apparel and Sodatream but everything looks pretty overvalued at the moment..
Been long CRVL, FANG, and N
out of curiosity, why do you like these stocks?
FNMA, FMCC
S - gold miners/funds.
L - Financials, online retailers, computer co.
holding lots of energy, couple financial, couple healthcare, RAX
buying gold & blue chips on dips
CALL - management has improved a lot since the founder has left and he now has no involvement, there's some potential in the mobile app if it can be monetized, and it's so cheap that everything has to go wrong to justify the price (5.1x earnings and 4.7x FCF over TTM). A large portion of cash flow is spent on repurchases. Strong balance sheet w/ $60M cash + investments and no debt. Backing out cash/investments, trading at ~3.5x cash flow. It's not an incredible business and it shouldn't be worth a high multiple, but at the current price and given the allocation of capital towards repurchases you will do well under all but the most pessimistic of scenarios.
On a totally different end, the sharp fall in REITs has made them interesting IMO, particularly the health care REITs which have been hammered since May. I like HCP., which is paying ~6% dividend with a very secure payout ratio, the lowest payout ratio among the larger HC REITs. The negatives w/ HCP and others are a) impact of rising rates, b) government funding of senior healthcare. With rates still historically very low and likely to remain there I think at least (a) has been way overblown. I wouldn't expect to make a lot of money in a stock such as HCP but given the triple net lease structure the risk is also fairly low.
ATK, SWHC, RGR
I'm long LEHMQ.
Haha
rofl
I own FNMA in hope it will one day reach ~$60 again. Although it's pretty speculative and unlikely. It has performed nicely over the past months tho when I entered at $1.30
ADI, LLTC & TXI would be good to grab on any pullbacks those guys are going to continue to do well with strong end market demand but are pricey. I would also look to US domestic refiners that can take advantage of a possible supply glut in WTI look to MPC, VLO maybe even PSX, making sure to keep an eye on the political front i.e. crude export ban. Probably stay away from interest rate sensitivity, utilities, telecom REITs etc. Really anything playing off stronger US economy led by production and job growth, PAYX, ADP, PKG etc etc
GOOG, SCTY
your timing is impeccable
Thank you, it really was.
BALT, GOGO, ONVO, KORS, RBCN... I think Refiners will be big in 2014 too (HFC/VLO)
There aren't too many stocks out there that have compelling valuations right now in my opinion. Everything I own has run up past my price targets... just waiting for the inevitable pullback so I can add to the stuff I already like. To answer your question, I'm not buying anything right now, I'm waiting.
Holding more cash than I'd like but as mentioned above, valuations are too high. Wanting to get into some financials on a dip.
HTZ - finally a positive pricing environment (supply reduction + increased demand = pricing power), HERC spin-off catalyst
Was short for long time, still bearish but wouldn't short now that it's an HF hotel and you never know what (slimy) management will do to support the stock to keep everyone happy now. Pricing thesis makes a ton of sense but people forget about how scary the residual risk is, and how arbitrary depreciation expense is for them. HERC spin will give it some legs though... another reason not to be short. Heavily prefer CAR.
DDD & MU
ZNGA, BBRY
ZNGA - entry @ 2.85
BBR - entry @ 5.75
Long - Valero (VLO), Coke (KO), AIG, Norfolk Southern (NSC), Apple (AAPL)
Been long LB, UA, ISBC, INTC, and EMC around a year now.
Feeling speculative and want to try a recent ipo, SFXE.
Long SKUL @5.51 average. It's my first attempt at independent valuation, moving away from low-cost index funds a bit.
Long D and NUAN
CNR, WJA, IMX and LULU.
Just bought into LULU after the significant price decline over the past few weeks.
Long on ARIA and DDD
Buy: YHOO, JCP (yes you read that right), FAST Hold: MAIN, NTI
I would take a long hard look at CHK, Long term this is going to be a great investment, I was going to get in at $25.50 a few weeks ago, but didn't have enough extra cash in my account to make a sizable investment.
Short social media basket.
Thank me next time.
Cheers, Marker
While I ultimately agree... that trade could be way too painful for a while still...unless you really think you can call the top. Puts are also awfully expensive unfortunately.
that is very true, always the case with bubbles ain't it? Leap of faith! Whilst there are ways to circumvent paying excessively for the massive implied volatility,it takes a fair bit of monitoring.
I've found calendar spreads to be extremely effective in these circumstances, worked for me on Tesla. Though for social media i'd rather explore bear call spreads.
Cheers, Marker
Actually I've changed my mind... Short everything on this thread. If most professional PMs can't get it right, I can bank on the fact that first year bankers and college seniors will get it wrong.
That's a pretty courageous thing to say and according to the quotation in your signature, you make a majority. So if I wanted to be a contrarian I'd be buying every stock listed in this thread.
(a.) I'm not Andrew Jackson, I'm a small time buy-side Associate posting anonymously online... so don't listen to a thing I say. (b.) You're probably an idiot. You're comment doesn't make any sense despite how clever you think it makes you sound. (c.) Most of these stock picks are garbage (as are most stock picks). I know I'm not that smart, but I know that most people in Finance think they are clever. (d.) Given the above, the thought of shorting this list does not make me a "contrarian"... I would argue it makes me relatively rational.
Well, you are obviously being sarcastic but still, remember that professional PMs are being restrained by lots of regulations that we, retail investors are not being subjected to. Just to name a few, long-only funds, too much AUM (yes, that can be a problem), lack of incentive to go contrarian ( Index pegging ).
I personally think it's much easy for alpha generation for a retail investor compared to huge funds.
I agree, my fund ($30 bn.) suffers from certain size issues - Buffet has been quoted many times saying how easy it would be to make consistently good picks with a smaller portfolio. However, I would bet that most of the picks on here are not good, are poorly researched, and the theses are full of holes. There is a reason retail investor confidence has high correlation with market tops... I would wrap investment bankers into the retail investor category.
Actually shorting the names on here would be a terrible idea, I was just being sarcastic for emphasis.
In the interest of not being a self-righteous douche that doesn't contribute to the thread, I'm long Apple, Orbital Sciences, AstraZeneca, DXJ (long Japan, short yen), and AutoZone. In my opinion they are all fully valued and I wouldn't buy at these prices.
And the reason why most professional PMs can't get it right consistently is that the market is relatively efficient and hence it's damn hard to beat it by a large margin over time. Which means that random stock picks like the picks in this thread are probably going to provide similar risk-adjusted returns to the market. So shorting a list of stock picks from a message board (even if they are terrible picks / unlikely to provide superior performance) is ex-ante like shorting the market, plus or minus some leverage to get the beta right. Nothing wrong with that but I think you could do it cheaper than by shorting all the stocks in this thread :)
ST - bearish, puts in AMZN, like ARIA if it can hold 7
LT 2014 - IAU, NEM, UGL, TBT, financial companies when mkt retraces
Bought AAPL at around $395 back in March, up over 40% now. What are your thoughts about the future of AAPL? How much upside is left for AAPL, and what can drive it to long term growth?
2 words: (Dry)Shipping stocks.
Good call.
I buy what everyone doesn't. I am long MUSA (a spunoff discount oil retailer), NWSA (a spunoff newspaper company), AEO (Best among one of the most out of favor industries in teen retail), VGA (Oil E&P operating primarily in Egypt, geopolitical risks push the stock down to 2.0x EBITDA), DE (Not hated, but not loved either)
I'd suggest that people should do some research on biotechs. I'd just sound like a pumper if I point out specific stocks, most of the ones with a lot of upside are small caps. Generally, biotechs are very easy to turn into TSLA's in terms of hype. "Good news about autism treatment" - +20%, months long uptrend. It's really that simple. The profits don't last, they're more for the people planning to hold for a few weeks up to 6 month time frame, but some are good long-term investments.
(aside: just to prove I know what I'm talking about, or at the very least have good "luck" with picking stocks.. you can look through my post history //www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/good-stocks-for-the-rest-of-the-year Called ENZY here, I was wrong on the timeframe but still, it would've been a win holding for the entire day following my post, and it's up ~30% from there //www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/ive-got-1000-to-gamble-on-the-stock-mark…)
IBB is a solid biotech ETF. https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:IBB . Why are biotechs outperforming the market? Healthcare expenses constantly go up, everyone is hoping for a cure for everything, healthcare is a $2.7 trillion industry (16% of the economy), and most of the growth will come from finding new drugs/treatments.
This is a good way to loose your shirt. Biotechs are shitty long-term investments, if your looking for a good way to compound wealth and you don't know a thing about healthcare, small cap Biotechs are a bad place to start (or finish for that matter). Keep your bad advice to yoruself, don't encourage others to make poor bets..
Also, the figures you quoted are misleading. 16% of the economy is only for the US, other developed economies generally only run 5-6%.
(assumption: Everyone here is at least familiar with modern portfolio theory, this thread is just for ideas on what to invest in, and you're an idiot if you form a portfolio based on suggestions without doing further research.)
Picking any single stock to cover an entire sector is a shitty long-term investment. Biotechs in general, on the whole, are a solid investment. Yes, there's research involved. Yes, there's a lot of volatility, a lot of binary events that can screw you if you pick individual stocks.
Suppose you want safer investments in general, you'll either need a portfolio of 20+ stocks, or a few ETFs (though SPY is diversified enough over the US economy). IBB is a biotech ETF that has outperformed the DOW for the past 2 years. There are over 50 different stocks represented by that ETF, IIRC. It includes profitable (mid-large cap) biotechs with FDA approved drugs, along with speculative penny stocks who don't have any drugs approved.
Care to recommend an ETF in a better performing sector than biotech? For the long term, of course. Look at biotech ETFs, on average they've outperformed the DOW over the past 1, 2, 5 and 10 year periods. If that's a shitty long-term investment, what's a good one?
Lastly, I'm not saying biotech is the best sector, just that it outperforms the market and should for a while. If that's not your thing, there's always SPY, guaranteed to market perform 100% of the time, ignoring the 0.2%(ish) fee.
Long MNST, LF and FDX right now
My top 2 are LXU and BKS - significantly undervalued IMO.
I'd be interested to know more about everyone's overall portfolio. How many positions are people generally in at any given time? Are you supplementing individual stocks with an index and, if so, what % of everyone's portfolios are invested actively?
CAB - Has internal bank they issue credit cards with, they make the spread on rates. Plus Cabela's has the craziest customers, and I think gun purchaes will continue to pick up. They only have ~40 stores right now with a PE in the low 20's. Planning on holding for about 5 years.
FITB - Regional bank. Had a really low PE when I bought it. I'm planning on selling sometime after Jan 1st to push the gain into next year, probly once the PE hits 11.
YHOO - Had this one for almost a year and gonna sell most of it once I hit the 1-year gain. Alibaba will continue to push it higher, and I think the core operations could potentially turn around. I'm gonna sell my original investment and hang onto the rest for a few years.
Long $BAX
http://tangentstyle.blogspot.com/2013/12/investment-thesis-baxter-inter…
Long BP, VOD, FCX, couple of high risk small caps.
Long KO, WFC, GE, HCP, O, F, CHL and CVX
VLO, FNMA, TRN, UPRO, KKR, and MU... been doing pretty well this year.. I think +80% -100%.. maybe more haven't checked in a while.. but most of these aren't overvalued (well I'm not too sure you have the balls to buy the 3x leveraged s and p etf) they've done extremely well this year but I'm sure they're still mostly undervalued or close to being fairly valued. If silver goes below 15 though I'm definitely buying (just do some research on the suppy/demand scenario for the coming decade you'll see why), also thinking of buying some herbalife puts (wayy out of the money; potential upside is 20-50x investment if it goes to 0 ( last time i checked).. and all my research seems to reaffirm ackman's thesis). I also made quite a bit of money buying out of the money calls for leveraged us stock etfs (with say 2% of my portfolio.. made 3 - 5x investment when i was right).
TNXP ------ Get ready for a multibagger this year.
read this amazing article -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1870881-4-reasons-tonix-could-be-a-mult…
EMC, Zynga, F, FB, YELP
Why ZNGA? Negative revenue growth doesn't lend much optimism for a new company.
I have read some similar comments and the chart doesn't look so well recently. I am thinking to sell it soon
Long CLWT, a penny stock. goo.gl/BBRrS2
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