So Labor Day seems like a good time to take stock of where we're at and make some predictions for fall! ...I personally would like to get on record and get everyone's thoughts for the next 3 months. Of course we all run the risk of looking incredibly stupid when we put our thoughts down on (virtual) paper, but that's part of what the business is all about...so anybody that wants to get invloved put down ur prediction for wher we will be 12/31/2009 on the following:
1) S&P 500
2) 10 Year Yield
3) Crude Oil
4) Random thought/prediction
Mine are as follows:
1) 1200
2) 4.00%
3) $80
4) The best stock market in the next 3 months will be Hong Kong where the dollar peg makes a combination of chinese growth and helicpoter ben's monetary policy. The Hang Seng could break its '08 high of 26,500-ish.
So let's hear it from everyone else...i especially want to here from frequent posters like Trade4Size, Edmundo, ideating, etc. Let's get on the record so bragging rights can be determined!
Winner gets absolutely nothing except for pride.
1) 1250 2) 3.5% 3) $75 4) Life insurance bonds and securitizations grow and grow
1) 1200 2) 4.00% 3) don't know don't care 4) I might be wrong and we get a decently volatile finish to the year, but no reason to think that this slow year won't end equally slow. When will interest rates finally have to start the climb back again? Single digits have to be headed out the door soon...yet the bond bulls keep coming for more.
1) 1100 2) 3.75% 3) $78 4) Long AUD/USD but expect a lot of rangebound/channel action. Also long vol in general, I expect VIX to hit around 35. Choppy end to the year is my best guess.
1) 1200 2) 3.75 3) 80
1) Are we talking about the same S&P? 940 2) 3.5% 3) $75 4) $1,100+ gold
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1) 900 2) 3.5% 3) $80 4) Here's my rabbit out of a hat, I feel nat. gas is a long play until end of year.
1) 925 2) 3.25% 3) $85 4) VIX at ~40, Gold at ~$1200
1) 1000 2) 3.4% 3) $78
Off topic: wtf, I know I haven't looked at the markets in a while, but when did the Bund 10 year rally above the US 10 year?
1) 900 2) 3.5% 3) $68 4) Long natty.
By 12/31
1) 1100 2) 3.6% 3) $78 oil pull back in gold to $950 4) Continued run up in financials, tech and retail stocks. I think retail stocks (i.e. JWN, SKS, etc.) will outperform on slightly better than expected discretionary spending during the upcoming holidays after tepid back to school shopping.
1) 1100 S&P (with a bit of volatility before we finish there) Leading sectors will be tech, materials, and specialty retail. 2) 3.9% 3) $78 Oil (again with a bit of volatility) 4) $1100 Gold. I also think the "trade down" trade is over and consumers no longer feeling sheer panic of losing their jobs will increase spending.
"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.
crude - 75
unemployment will increase by year end. thumbs down on risky, thumbs up on riskless and commodities
on another note, sovereign debt that trades at junk/near junk is yielding high amounts but i think yields will go higher.
Interesting results so far...my quick calc has the average S&P prediction for the board at 1058 with 7 bulls and 6 bears.
Also interesting to note that almost all the "random predictions" were inflation trades...Gold, Aussie Dollar, two nat gas longs, Hang Seng, etc. And our four most bearish prognosticators, (Mez, Edmundo, dontmakemeshortyou, and Chim Chim) all had inflation trades in their wildcard slot...definitely some believers in stagflation on WSO.
The stats so far in case anyone is interested:
Mean 1058.85 3.60% $77.50 Median 1100 3.50% $78.00 High 1250 4.00% $85.00 Low 900 3.18% $68.00 Std Dev 128.84 0.26% $4.10
Sorry I don't know how to get it formatted properly...
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Shame we havent had the opportunity for the Ideating the god of finance to grace us with his wisdom.
"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.
Question for you guys who are long natural gas: why? The roll is absolutely huge until December.
...that is a good point kxbue...when we come back to this at the new year and see who was right we definitely have to keep in mind the roll in assesing whether that nat gas trade "worked". beating the forwards isnt going to be easy in natty...
1) 1156 2) 3.23 3) 83
1) equal parts 1150/850. Gun to my head, 1150. 2) 3.8 - the more interesting question is what's going to happen on the 2s10s 3) 65 4) Short NZD/USD, pay Brazil, short copper, look for USD/JPY to establish ceiling around 94, VIX will close out year uptrending between 35-40. Bold enough?
Agreed, the roll is the deal-breaker for natty.
Take a look at HNU (Double Long NatGas ETF), up 60% in the last 5 days. I see more coming.
Im going to up Edmundo on gold to $1,200 by year-end.
I just bought Dec 09 GLD 108 Calls for $2, giving me an effective break even at expiration of $110, or gold at $1,100 an ounce.
Let's hope the Fed keeps those presses rolling!
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Just bought UDN at 28.13. We'll see where that's at at the end of the year.
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Yesterday, Peter Schiff predicted parity between the Dow and gold; meaning the Dow will drop to 5,000 and gold will rise to $5,000 an ounce. NICE:
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Everytime I see Peter Schiff/Ron Paul speak, I ask myself (a non-American) why in God's name these guys are not running the U.S Government.
I've got gold in my PA...will be buying more of it shortly.
x
Long Gold and Oil Oct/Nov calls right now... I'm thinking the fall has leveled out and the consolidation is going to lead to a jump upwards next week... we shall see.
But an eediot??? Wow.
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I'm a little late to the party, but here you go:
1) 1160 2) 3.5 % 3) $78
...
A) 920 B) 3.1% C) 60 dollars
Ive been trading gold and gold stocks to the long side pretty aggressively lately.
"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.
920 3.25 75 Muni defaults rise significantly. Moody's sued by the SEC. Aa/Aaa spread at 150
Scaling out of long AUD...
Yeah I've been trading the range pretty successfully recently, and just exited my long too. I'm almost tempted to go short in the immediate term... but I'm pretty long commodities so I'd mostly just be hedging myself.
s&p 1100 10y 3.61 oil, 67 4) markets will reprice fed funds as moving earlier than q4 2010
...the trade of the last month, that nobody here has mentioned yet, has been long NOK. Norway is gonna hike in 3 weeks and has an unemployment rate of 2.7%. They also have oil. And beautiful women. What a county. What a currency!
I think Oil needs to find its footing though for it to breakout (which I agree it will, so I agree with NOK outperforming).
Was taking AUD as a general proxy for carrying risk currencies. What was surprising was the choppy action in the loonie over the past 2 months.
Edit: Jesus, NOK just went bid parabolic... could top around 1780
s&p: 1000 10 yr: 3.50 crude: 62 Financials are going to be the no. 1 performing sector the rest of this year and through next year - XLF will double from $15 to $30 by the end of 2010. EUR/USD will NOT break the 1.60 level for at least 2 years. Emerging markets will outperform the G10 for the foreseeable future.
Interesting day so far, RBA raises, Gold up over 2%, Silver over 4%. Lovely.
ROFL Ideating just said parabolic. Hahaha.
Why the hell are Gold stocks so much more volatile than gold itself? Anyone have any ideas?
"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.
Dollar = Down Gold = Up S&P = Down
Can't embed the video, but the here's the link: http://broadcast.ino.com/education/q4trades/?campaignid=3
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Gold over $1,100.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-hits-new-record-above-1100-2009-1…
7 weeks to go...
...1 month to go and I was just looking back over all the predictions. Very few people had the "everything up" enviornment where bonds, stocks, and commods all rallied together. Many had the stocks and the commods but few had the bond market rally...
So far, if the year ended today (and it dosent), i think yacht_man has the best combination with: S&P 1156 (futes trade 1097 as i type this), 10y UST yield 3.25% (3.22% currently), and oil at $82 (76.75 right now). Not perfect, but he's got the general idea on all 3 markets...
Jamie_Dimon also has an ineteresting post because he mentions sovereign risk as a driver and obviously that story has flared up over the last couple of weeks...he also has 2 of 3 markets pretty well called only missed on stocks...
I'll also give a mention to all of our resident gold fans....edmundo, wallstreetoasis.com, trade4size, etc....has been the best 4th question random idea of the thread. The nat gas fans have not fared as well...
Just remembered back to this thread, so here is how everything ended up:
1) S&P 500: 1115.10 2) 10 Year Yield : 3.8070% 3) Crude Oil: 79.62 4) Random thought/predictions: Gold: 1095.20 VIX: 19.47
I feel pretty good about my predictions, pretty close 1) 1100 (1.3% difference) 2) 3.75% (1.52% difference) 3) $78 (2% difference)
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