Based on the fact that we have a central bank that may not have a problem with $200 oil as long as they think it is transitory.

 

It's far to over-extended. Should be a good short term short at the very least, although I rarely short when the things are trending up.

I win here, I win there...
 

I agree. I feel as thought the fed needs to tighten the money supply....

I am short the euro/usd right now. I dont know how the market has ignored the sovereign debt crisis. However, I think what we saw over the last ten days with that huge 300 pip eur/usd correction (and head-scratching rally) showed the underlying fragility inherent in the Euro right now.

Im short, but im scared. I dont know where the damn ceiling is on the euro.

 
dmackorth:
I agree. I feel as thought the fed needs to tighten the money supply....

I am short the euro/usd right now. I dont know how the market has ignored the sovereign debt crisis. However, I think what we saw over the last ten days with that huge 300 pip eur/usd correction (and head-scratching rally) showed the underlying fragility inherent in the Euro right now.

Im short, but im scared. I dont know where the damn ceiling is on the euro.

Why don't you close your current short, wait for a trend reversal conformation and then re-enter? If it continues to trend up irrationally, I can only hope you have stops in place.

I win here, I win there...
 
dmackorth:
I agree. I feel as thought the fed needs to tighten the money supply....

I am short the euro/usd right now. I dont know how the market has ignored the sovereign debt crisis. However, I think what we saw over the last ten days with that huge 300 pip eur/usd correction (and head-scratching rally) showed the underlying fragility inherent in the Euro right now.

Im short, but im scared. I dont know where the damn ceiling is on the euro.

Tighten the money supply? Why do you think the Fed has become so aggressive with QE measures? Tightening the money supply coupled with capital inflows from Europe will strengthen the dollar to unsustainable levels. Walk me through how that increases production?

 

EUR, SEK, NOK, etc are the only currencies not particpating in the global currency depreciation war. Until either the asians agree to finnally let their ccys apreciate or the ben bernank blinks and gets hawkish those currencies are the ones to own. forget the PIIGS stuff that is a side-show relative to this global standoff between the fed and the asian central banks about who will be the one to finnally give i and allow currency apreciation.

 

Looks like a temporary correction opposed to a trend reversal.

Then again, it's a bit too early to be sure.

I win here, I win there...

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